Tuesday, May 13, 2008

GMI: 5; GMI-R: 8; CPST, Judy's pick, breaks out again

The GMI rose one, to 5 (of 6) and the GMI-R to 8 (of 10).  There were 83 new highs and 47 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday.  Monday was the 35th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  QLD is up over 18% since the beginning of the QQQQ up-trend.  It is nice to just ride with the market's up-trend.  CPST, Judy's pick, is up more than 50% since I first wrote about it on March 27.  The stock broke out of a consolidation on Monday on huge volume.  I continue to hold a position in this stock. 

Monday, May 12, 2008

GMI: 4; GMI-R: 7; 11 IBD100 new highs

The GMI remains at 4 (of 6) and the GMI-R is at 7 (of 10).  There were 89 new highs and 100 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  Friday was the 34th day of the current QQQQ up-trend.  Eleven of the IBD100 stocks on the list published on 4/12/2008 hit a new high on Friday: NE,PDE,SID,ARD,TTES,SII,PCLN,SWN,GGB,PVA and FTI. While the market technicals weakened last week, the QQQQ up-trend remains intact, for now.  And options expire on Friday....

Friday, May 09, 2008

GMI: 4; GMI-R: 7; 33rd day of QQQQ up-trend

The GMI fell to 4 (of 6) and the GMI-R to 7 (of 10). There were 90 new highs and 103 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday.  The Worden T2108 indicator is now at 69%, down from 77% on May 2nd, but still in bullish territory.  Thursday was the 33rd day in the current QQQQ up-trend. 

Thursday, May 08, 2008

GMI: 6; GMI-R: 10; 32nd day of QQQQ up-trend

The GMI and GMI-R remain at their maximum values.  There were 110 new highs and 78 new lows on Wednesday in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Wednesday was the 32nd day since I identified the start of the current QQQQ up-trend. 

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

GMI: 6; GMI-R: 10; almost 100% invested

For the first time since December 26, the GMI is now at the maximum reading of +6 (of 6) and the GMI-R is  10 (of 10).  There were 121 new highs and 54 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Tuesday.  Tuesday was the 31st day since I identified the beginning of the current QQQQ up-trend.  I transferred my university pension from money market funds to growth mutual funds today.  I am also almost totally invested in stocks in my IRA.  I continue to hold a large position in QLD, the ultra QQQ ETF that strives to double the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index.  I also own growth stocks such as AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, URBN, and V.  I also own some of Judy's picks:  CPST and IMAX.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

GMI: 4; GMI-R: 8; 30th day of QQQQ short term up-trend

There were no changes in the GMI and GMI-R on Monday.  There were only 61 new highs and 57 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Monday was the 30th day of the current QQQQ up-trend.  AAPL, GOOG and RIMM continue to show strength. 

Monday, May 05, 2008

GMI: 4; GMI-R: 8; IBD100 stock list-- the kiss of death?

The GMI remains at 4 (of 6) and the GMI-R is at 8 (of 10). (Click on table to enlarge.)  There were 99 new highs and 39 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  April 22 was the last day we had more than 100 new highs.  Friday was the 29th day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend. Gmi0502 The Worden T2108 Indicator is at 77%, comfortably in bullish territory.  All of my short term indicators for four key stock indexes are positive,  GMI-S = 100%. More than two thirds of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have a MACD that is above its signal line. The bottom line is that the Nasdaq market is in an uptrend and that it will last until it ends.  So I am riding this up-trend for all I can by being long the ULTRA QQQ ETF, QLD.  I also hold positions in AAPL, RIMM, PRGO, V, DZZ.  I have  written calls on some of these stocks. As long as the QQQQ up-trend holds, the odds favor one who is long growth stocks...

Speaking of growth stocks, long time readers know that I have had a lot of success trading the types of growth stocks that IBD writes about.  Every Monday, IBD publishes a list of the top 100 stocks that meet their rigorous fundamental and technical criteria.  Market leaders tend to show up on these lists and, contrary to the popular wisdom, it is not too late to buy these stocks once they appear on the IBD100 list.  Each new list  replaces the weaker stocks on the list with new, stronger stocks.  For that reason, their IBD100 Index overestimates the performance of the IBD100 stocks over time.  Once each month I therefore create a watch list containing the IBD100 stocks published on that Monday and periodically examine how the various lists have performed. This table shows the results for the lists I have monitored over the past 12 months.  A number of interesting findings are evident.  Note that only 32-62% of the stocks on each list closed higher on Friday than they closedIbdperf0502 on the day that their respective list was published.  (Remember that many stocks have shown up repeatedly on each list for a while.) While some of the  most recently published lists have performed better, note that in most cases less than one half of the stocks on  a list closed higher Friday than on the day they appeared on their respective list.  One cannot just buy any of the IBD100 stocks and expect a gain over time.  Another finding is that the majority of the stocks from each list rose on Friday.  In comparison,  45% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 56% of the S&P 500 stocks rose on Friday.  However, almost all of the IBD100 lists had more new highs on Friday than the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 Index component stocks.  Just 2 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 2% of the S&P500 stocks hit a new high Friday, compared with 11-16 of the stocks on the IBD100 lists since November.  The  outperformance of the recent IBD100 stock lists is also evident in the finding that 19% or more  of the stocks on the IBD100 lists since January are within 5% of their 52 week high, compared with only 7% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 11% of the S&P500 stocks.  The median change (one half did better than the median and one half did worse)  in price the past month for the all of the IBD100 stock lists was greater than the 5% median change in the Nasdaq100 stocks and the +3%  in the S&P500 stocks.  The bottom line for me is that the IBD100 stock list published each Monday is a great place to find possible market leaders that are going to new highs.  However, one must not buy them and forget them.  Many of the IBD100 stocks will weaken and the trader must remain vigilant. The list published on 4/21 underperfomed recently (only 41% are up) because it contained many of the agricultural, metal and oil stocks that have weakened.   The table above (click on to enlarge) lists the 16 stocks on the IBD100 list published on 4/21/2008 that hit a new high on Friday.  It is noteworthy that two of these stocks (BAP and KSU) were among the 5 stocks that hit a new high on the list published a year ago, on 5/14/2007 . Since that time, BAP is up 34% and KSU is up 21%. In fact, 28% of the stocks on the list published a year ago are up 25% or more; an amazing 15%  are up from  50%-315%.  (MTL is up 315%, POT 185%, BIDU 182% and RIMM is up 160%.)  Appearing on the IBD100 list was apparently not the kiss of death for these stocks.....

Friday, May 02, 2008

GMI: 4; GMI-R: 8; Weekly QQQQ Indicator Turns Positive!

The GMI rose to 4 (of 6) and the GMI-R rose to 8 (of 10).  For the first time since last December, the Weekly QQQQ Index turned positive.  There were  77 new highs and 43 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday.  When the number of new highs reaches 100, the GMI will likely turn 6.  Remember, the media pundits usually call the new bull market 4-6 months after the bottom.  Thursday was the 28th day since I identified the current short term QQQQ up-trend.  During that time, the QLD has advanced almost 17%.  By merely riding the index up-trend since I called it one could have achieved a very nice gain.   My entire account for the year is now positive, even though the major indexes are still down for the year.  Stocks I own, like RIMM, V and AAPL continue to lead the market up.  And DZZ rises as gold  breaks down.  I took my losses in ITRI and GTLS on Thursday.

Thursday, May 01, 2008

GMI: 3; GMI-R: 7; ITRI

The GMI fell one, to 3 (of 6) as the 10 Day Successful New High Index turned negative.  The GMI-R remained stable at 7 (of 10).  The QQQQ short term up-trend remains intact, having completed its 27th day on Wednesday.  There were 60 new highs and 49 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, ITRI seriously weakened and I am selling my position.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

GMI: 4; GMI-R: 7; URBN breaks out; 12 IBD100 new highs

The GMI remains at 4 (of 6) and the GMI-R is at 7 (of 10).  There were only 21 new highs and 41 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Tuesday.  Tuesday was the 26th day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend.  Holding QLD is a wonderful way to catch this up-trend.  Since this up-trend began QLD has advanced by 11.5%, almost twice the 6.2% advance in the QQQQ.  In addition, URBN, which I first wrote about on 4/7 at 32.54, broke out on Tuesday, closing at $34.64, an all-time high.  I own URBN.  Growth stocks are coming to life.  Twelve  stocks on the IBD100 stock lists I have monitored the past year hit a new high on Tuesday:  MA, FLS, ICLR, URBN, WRNC, ISYS, HOS, BMI, GTLS, JST, NXY, SDA.  This is a good place to look for leaders in the current rally.

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May 2008

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